ACME Macro China Daily Brief
Ten developments that will shape China's next decade, read first through Chinese sources.
|
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · Edition No. 03 ACME Macro Daily Brief · 中国战略要闻 Ten developments that will shape China’s next decade, for boards, chief executives and governments. Read first through Chinese sources. |
6% Banks’ FX reserve requirement from November 15, up from 4% |
Rmb10tn 2030 output target for China’s emerging pillar industries |
$500bn+ China’s trade with the five Mekong countries |
−3.81% Star 50 tech index on Tuesday |
- The PBoC moves to slow the yuan’s rally
- Planners target Rmb10tn in pillar industries
- Tech stocks slide; DeepSeek eyes Huawei chips
- He Lifeng pledges yuan liquidity for Hong Kong
- Li Qiang pitches people-centric, open AI
- Eighteen more satellites for Spacesail
- Tax exit bans spread; Guangzhou ex-chief charged
- Tencent and Visa link up on payments
- Taipei protests its Apec invitation
- Beijing rallies the Mekong against scams
01 · Currency & monetary policy
The PBoC leans against the yuan’s rally with its first FX reserve increase since 2021
Shanghai’s Lujiazui financial district. Photo: Freeman Zhou / Unsplash
The People’s Bank of China will raise the share of foreign-currency deposits that banks must hold in reserve from 4 per cent to 6 per cent from November 15, its first increase since late 2021, Caixin reported. The central bank said the move was “aimed at strengthening the management of foreign exchange liquidity in financial institutions”, according to Reuters, which calculated that it would drain about $24bn of dollar liquidity from the banking system.
The onshore yuan closed at 6.6458 per dollar on Monday, its strongest level in more than four years. On Tuesday the PBoC set its daily reference rate at 6.7150, 692 pips weaker than that close, and the gap between fixing and market has widened to about 500 pips from about 100 over the previous four months, Caixin reported. Reuters attributed the yuan’s gain of more than 5 per cent this year to robust exports, large trade surpluses and heavy conversion of corporate dollar holdings.
What to watch
Beijing has switched from defending the yuan to slowing its rise, reversing the cuts it made to this ratio in 2022 and 2023. A firmer, managed yuan lowers import costs and helps the push to internationalise the currency, but squeezes exporters already hurt by price wars. Expect more counter-cyclical tools if the fixing gap keeps widening.
02 · State planning
Planners aim to nearly double China’s emerging pillar industries to Rmb10tn by 2030
The Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Dominic Kurniawan Suryaputra / Unsplash
Output from China’s emerging pillar industries, including integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, the low-altitude economy, new energy storage and intelligent robotics, is projected to exceed Rmb10tn ($1.4tn) by the end of the 15th five-year plan in 2030, up from nearly Rmb6tn last year, Ren Zhongbao of the National Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday, according to Xinhua. The NDRC promised more fiscal and financial support and said it would guide private capital into the sectors.
Integrated-circuit output rose 23.3 per cent year on year to 442.8bn units in the first three quarters, and out-licensing deals for innovative drugs reached about $130bn, close to last year’s total. The commission named quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G as “future industries”, and set a goal for gross ocean product of more than Rmb13tn by 2030.
What to watch
This is the first quantified sector target of the new plan period, and it shows where subsidies, state credit and competition between provinces will flow. For foreign groups the openings are in supply chains and licensing, notably biotech. The risk is a fresh round of overcapacity in robotics and storage, like the one now hurting solar and electric vehicles.
Sources: Xinhua via People’s Daily · CGTN
03 · Technology & markets
Chinese tech shares slide as DeepSeek is reported to commit its next model to Huawei chips
A computer processor. Photo: Brian Kostiuk / Unsplash
China’s technology shares fell sharply on Tuesday. The Star 50 index of Shanghai’s tech board dropped 3.81 per cent and the ChiNext growth board 2.73 per cent, with computing-hardware groups such as Eoptolink and Zhongji Innolight weaker across the board, according to Cailian Press figures carried by PANews. Four broad-based exchange-traded funds each traded more than Rmb10bn, the first time since the rally of September 2024.
DeepSeek plans to train its next-generation V5 model on Huawei’s Ascend chips, the Chinese outlet STAR Market Daily reported, citing industry sources. The report has not been independently confirmed. Wccftech, citing posts on X, put the order at about 160,000 Ascend 950DT chips for a 1GW data centre in Inner Mongolia, with shipments ramping up in the fourth quarter.
What to watch
Training a frontier model end to end on domestic chips would be the clearest test yet of whether Huawei can replace Nvidia at scale. Tuesday’s sell-off shows how crowded China’s AI-hardware trade has become, and the heavy ETF turnover is consistent with the standing market support Beijing put in place on Monday.
Sources: PANews / Cailian Press · Geopolitechs (STAR Market Daily report) · Wccftech
04 · Hong Kong & finance
He Lifeng pledges more offshore yuan and new listings for Hong Kong
Containers stacked at the port of Hong Kong. Photo: Timelab / Unsplash
China will increase offshore yuan liquidity, expand yuan bond issuance in Hong Kong and back new listings in the city, vice-premier He Lifeng told the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit by video on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported. He said Beijing would keep supporting “a free and open economic environment” in Hong Kong and that building up the city “remains a key strategy for China”.
Hong Kong’s chief executive John Lee told the summit, hosted for the fifth time by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, that the city remains a hub of global finance, The Standard reported. HSBC chief executive Georges Elhedery said the “Asia buys Asia” trend had added an estimated 1.8 per cent to Asian GDP over the past five years.
What to watch
Beijing wants Hong Kong to be the main offshore pool for a strengthening yuan. More offshore liquidity and yuan bonds make the currency cheaper for foreign issuers and investors to use, and reinforce the city’s role as the listing venue for mainland champions.
Sources: Bloomberg via Straits Times · The Standard
05 · AI governance
Li Qiang pitches ‘people-centric’ open-source AI against a digital iron curtain
A data-centre server aisle. Photo: İsmail Enes Ayhan / Unsplash
Premier Li Qiang called for a “people-centric” approach to artificial intelligence in his keynote opening the World Internet Conference summit in Wuzhen, saying humans must keep control of intelligent machines and that technology must not turn people into “mere appendages of technology”, The Standard reported. He said Beijing opposes a “digital iron curtain” and will help global south countries build digital infrastructure.
The conference expo showed more than 1,000 new technologies from 671 Chinese and foreign companies, and the security group Qi An Xin warned that advanced AI can now find and exploit network vulnerabilities in hours rather than months. Separately, NDRC official Wang Ruomeng said on Tuesday that the “AI Plus” programme would extend into mining, aerial work and emergency response, with national pilot bases in manufacturing, energy, transport and healthcare, and that AI regulation would be tightened, Xinhua reported.
What to watch
Beijing is positioning open-source Chinese models as the default for developing countries while tightening control at home. Boards should expect Chinese AI rules to arrive bundled with deployment targets, and AI-enabled cyber risk to become a formal regulatory priority.
Sources: The Standard · CGTN / Xinhua (NDRC)
06 · Space
Lijian-2 lofts 18 Spacesail satellites as China’s orbital internet build-out accelerates
Network cabling in a data centre. Photo: Taylor Vick / Unsplash
A Lijian-2 rocket developed by CAS Space put 18 satellites for the Spacesail internet constellation into orbit on Tuesday from the Dongfeng commercial space zone in north-west China, China News Service reported. It was the rocket’s second flight and its first large-scale constellation mission. The liquid-fuelled Lijian-2 can lift 12 tonnes to low Earth orbit.
Yang Haoliang, the rocket’s commander at CAS Space, said China’s low-orbit satellite internet was entering a phase of “intensive deployment”. The launch takes Spacesail to 274 satellites and China to 77 orbital launch attempts this year, about 30 per cent of the world total, according to the independent tracker Flight Atlas.
What to watch
Spacesail is one of China’s answers to Starlink, and commercial launch capacity is the constraint it most needs to lift. Expect it to court global south governments for broadband contracts and landing rights, which puts orbital connectivity squarely into the geopolitical contest.
Sources: China News Service · Xinhua via VON · Flight Atlas
07 · Governance & business risk
Tax exit bans spread as the post-plenum graft drive reaches Guangzhou
Tiananmen, Beijing. Photo: Dominic Kurniawan Suryaputra / Unsplash
Tax authorities across China are increasingly barring people who owe tax from leaving the country, a legal power seldom used until recent years, Caixin reported. The bureau in Yanji, Jilin, issued exit bans covering 89 taxpayers days after a bureau in Zhuhai restricted nine companies and one individual. In April, Shengsi county in Zhejiang barred the legal representatives of 41 companies from leaving. Notices rose across jurisdictions in September and October.
The party has also expelled Guo Yonghang, 61, a former party chief of Guangzhou, and referred him for prosecution, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced on Monday, Caixin reported. He is accused of trading favours, including on land deals, for money and gifts, and is the first provincial-level official sent for prosecution since the Central Committee’s fifth plenum.
What to watch
Local governments under fiscal strain are reaching for hard enforcement tools, including travel bans on companies’ legal representatives, to collect arrears. Multinationals should review the tax position of their Chinese entities and the exposure of executives who serve as legal representatives before they travel.
Sources: Caixin (exit bans) · Caixin (Guo Yonghang)
08 · Payments & opening
Tencent and Visa team up on cross-border payments and AI-agent commerce
A circuit board. Photo: Alexandre Debiève / Unsplash
Tencent and Visa have signed a memorandum of understanding to expand co-operation in cross-border payments and enterprise AI, Caixin reported. TenPay Global will work with Visa to ease payments for travellers, Visa Direct will enable remittances from overseas into the WeChat Pay ecosystem, and Tencent Cloud and Visa will collaborate on commerce conducted by AI agents.
The deal follows Visa’s receipt in early October of preparatory approval to set up a wholly foreign-owned bank-card clearing business on the mainland. Analysts cited by Caixin said the partnership could strengthen Tencent against Alipay and UnionPay International.
What to watch
Beijing is opening its payments system selectively to foreign networks, to make China easier for visitors and to plug its super-apps into global rails. Agent-led payments are an early front: whoever sets the standards for AI agents that buy on users’ behalf will shape cross-border commerce.
Sources: Caixin
09 · Taiwan & Apec
Taipei protests Beijing’s handling of its Apec invitation as the Shenzhen summit nears
The coast of Taiwan. Photo: Sam Chang / Unsplash
Taiwan’s foreign minister Lin Chia-lung urged Beijing on Monday to follow established practice in inviting Taiwan to the Apec leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18–19, Focus Taiwan reported. Lin said China had emailed the invitation rather than having an official deliver it, and that Taipei would “lodge an immediate protest against any action that violates established practices” but would not forfeit its right to attend.
When China last hosted, in 2014, it sent a deputy director of its Taiwan Affairs Office to Taipei to hand over the invitation in person. On Tuesday Wang Yi and commerce minister Wang Wentao co-chaired the Apec ministerial meeting by video from Beijing, a format the foreign ministry said was chosen “to ensure optimal effects”.
What to watch
Who represents Taiwan in Shenzhen, and how they are treated, is the first test of cross-strait relations since the plenum. A downgraded or absent Taiwanese delegation would hand Beijing a symbolic win on its own soil and complicate the summit for Washington and Tokyo.
Sources: Focus Taiwan · Chinese foreign ministry · Foreign ministry (Apec ministerial)
10 · Southeast Asia
Beijing hosts its Mekong neighbours with scam networks high on the agenda
A container ship and cranes at a port. Photo: Albert Stoynov / Unsplash
Wang Yi is chairing the 11th foreign ministers’ meeting of the Lancang-Mekong Co-operation in Beijing on November 3–4, according to the foreign ministry. On Tuesday he met officials from Thailand, Laos and Myanmar separately, telling Thailand the two countries should step up efforts against gambling and telecoms fraud and pledging support for Myanmar’s government in pursuing political reconciliation, Reuters reported.
China’s trade with the five Mekong countries has passed $500bn, about 150 per cent growth in a decade, the foreign ministry said. At home, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate on Monday detailed networks that sold Chinese citizens’ personal data to overseas fraud rings, including one group that sold the records of 870,000 job applicants, Caixin reported.
What to watch
The scam compounds on the Myanmar, Thai and Cambodian borders have become the security issue through which Beijing deepens policing and political ties in the Mekong. Thailand is due to co-chair a fifth leaders’ meeting in Guilin later this year; expect Chinese security co-operation to grow alongside its trade footprint.
Sources: Prensa Latina (foreign ministry) · Reuters via A News · The Nation Thailand · Caixin
|
The calendar ahead Dates boards should hold | ||||||||||||||||
|
ACME Macro Advisory
Method: stories are selected for strategic, forward-looking relevance and read first through Chinese official and financial media (Xinhua, the foreign ministry, Caixin, CGTN), then checked against international reporting. Chinese state media framing is reported as such. Figures are as published by the cited sources.